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When should you reach for a precision-recall curve inst...
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See plansBoth curves sweep the same decision threshold and plot two rates against each other, but they use different denominators, and that difference matters most under class imbalance. ROC plots true positive rate against false positive rate, and both are computed conditional on the true class label — true positive rate is TP/(TP+FN), over actual positives only, and false positive rate is FP/(FP+TN), over actual negatives only. Because of that conditioning, a ROC curve doesn’t change shape as you vary the ratio of positives to negatives in your evaluation set; it answers “how well does this model rank positives above negatives” independent of how many of each there are.
Precision, by contrast, is TP/(TP+FP) — conditioned on the model’s positive predictions, not the true label — so it’s directly sensitive to the base rate: the same classifier looks much worse on precision when positives are rare, because even a small false-positive rate produces a flood of false positives relative to the few true ones. That’s exactly why PR curves are the right tool for rare-event problems like fraud detection or disease screening — they don’t let you get away with the flattering-but-misleading picture ROC/AUROC can paint when the positive class is a tiny fraction of the data. Use ROC when both classes matter and are reasonably balanced or when you need threshold-independent ranking quality; use PR when you specifically care about the reliability of the positive predictions your model actually fires.