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You want to fit a Chinchilla scaling law for your model...
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See plansThe primary issue is that the model’s terminal loss is heavily influenced by the specific learning rate schedule applied during training. An early checkpoint in a long cosine run is still operating at a higher learning rate compared to a model that has fully annealed. Consequently, these checkpoints are not equivalent to models trained from scratch for shorter durations. Relying on them leads to a biased scaling curve. The recommended approach is to use independent runs or a WSD (Warmup-Stable-Decay) schedule with checkpoint branching.