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You're capacity-planning a production LLM serving stack...
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See plansThe process starts from token-level math, not request counts, because tokens are what actually consume compute and memory. Estimate expected input and output tokens per request, multiply by your target requests per second to get a required total tokens-per-second the system must sustain, then divide by a single replica’s measured tokens-per-second throughput under realistic batching — which you get from actually load-testing a replica, not from a spec sheet, since real throughput depends heavily on your specific batching strategy, sequence length distribution, and hardware.
That division gives you a raw replica count, but sizing to the average throughput is a mistake: traffic isn’t uniform, and tail latency under load (not average latency) is usually what the SLA actually cares about. Real capacity plans build in headroom for peak-to-average traffic ratios and for the latency degradation that happens as batch occupancy rises, and they treat autoscaling policy (how quickly you can add replicas when load spikes) as part of the capacity plan, not a separate concern bolted on afterward.