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Production accuracy dropped 15% but your offline evalua...
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See plansHealthy offline metrics plus a real production drop is close to a textbook signature of training-serving skew, and it’s worth diagnosing in a fixed order rather than guessing.
Systematic diagnosis:
- Compare feature distributions. Log production features and training features side by side and compare distributions feature-by-feature, using a population stability index rather than just eyeballing means — PSI catches subtle shifts summary statistics hide.
- Check feature computation code. Is the exact same code path computing each feature in both training and serving, or are there two independent implementations that were “the same” at one point and have since drifted?
- Check for schema drift. A field that silently changed type — int to string, say — will often still run without error while quietly corrupting the feature.
- Check for value drift. New categorical values showing up in production that the training data never contained.
- Check label drift, if applicable — has the actual definition of the target shifted underneath the model?
The most common real-world root cause is an aggregation-window
mismatch: training computes a feature like transaction_velocity as a
24-hour rolling window from a nightly batch job, while production
computes what’s nominally “the same” feature as a 6-hour window from a
streaming pipeline. Nothing errors — both pipelines run cleanly — but
the feature production actually serves is measurably different from
what the model learned on, and that gap alone can be the entire
explanation for a 15% accuracy drop with clean-looking offline numbers.
The structural fix, not just the one-off patch, is a shared feature store (Feast, Tecton) as the single source of truth both training and serving read from — so both paths compute identical features by construction, rather than by two teams’ pipelines happening to agree today and drifting apart tomorrow.