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Your recommender's click-through rate keeps hitting all...
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See plansRising CTR feels like success, but it’s measuring the wrong thing once your own model controls the exposure. Users can only click on what they’re shown — if the model decides “action movies” convert well and fills the carousel with them, clicks on action movies rise, not because that’s genuine preference but because there was nothing else to click. Feeding that data back into training doesn’t teach the model what users want; it teaches the model to become more confident in its own previous decisions. Each retraining cycle narrows the slice of content space the model is willing to show, and the system spirals toward an increasingly confident, increasingly narrow, increasingly boring catalog — while every offline and online CTR metric keeps climbing, because the metric only measures behavior within the options the model itself chose to present.
This is a degenerate feedback loop, and it’s invisible to standard A/B-style click metrics because click-through rate has no mechanism to detect what users would have clicked on if shown something else. The fix requires deliberately generating that missing counterfactual data. Carve out a slice of live traffic — an epsilon-greedy allocation is the simplest version — to surface random or model-uncertain items. This is what actually produces informative negative labels: without it, the model never sees “not clicked because it wasn’t shown,” only “not clicked because it was shown and rejected,” and those are very different signals. Pair exploration with inverse propensity weighting during training, down-weighting clicks that happened mainly because an item occupied a privileged slot and up-weighting clicks on items that succeeded despite poor placement. The target isn’t clicks today; it’s preserving the informational value of the training data you’re generating for every future model.